Will OpenAI release next-generation models with varying capabilities and sizes?
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10
Ṁ3282026
77%
chance
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Resolves to YES if OpenAI releases next-generation foundation models of different capabilities & sizes(eg. release of Anthropic's Claude 3 haiku/sonnet/opus).
If OpenAI releases a next-generation model and a optimized version of it at the same time, and they are in the different capability class unlike GPT-4 and GPT-4 turbo, then this question will resolve to yes.
Resolves to No if OpenAI just releases one model(eg. release of GPT-4).
The models must be the same family. (GPT-4.5 turbo & GPT-5 -> NO)
This question is limited to release date only. If OpenAI releases smaller or larger version of the model after the initial release date, that doesn't count.
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