This market will resolve to YES if there is a TV show that begins airing before 2030 that lists Aaron Sorkin as either a creator or a showrunner. To qualify as a TV show the show must be eligible for a Primetime Emmy Award.

As Manifold does not have a platform-wide rule about this insider trading is prohibited. Insider trading is defined below:

For the purposes of this prediction market, insider trading refers to the buying or selling of contracts based on material, non-public information that could impact the outcome of a prediction. This includes using confidential information gained through privileged access or relationships. For example, accessing unpublished earnings reports before they are released is insider trading, even if obtained indirectly. However, making trades based on obscure, but publicly available rumors or expert analysis, while potentially giving an advantage, is not considered insider trading.