What proportion of Manifold markets made in January 2027 will be visible to more than 100 users?
Plus
1
Ṁ3202027
1D
1W
1M
ALL
68%
(Proportion of Markets Visible to >100 Users) * (1 if Manifold markets exist and this info is public, 0 otherwise)
47%
Manifold will not exist in Jan 2027 OR Manifold will not primarily center around prediction markets OR Manifold won't make this information public
32%
(Proportion of Markets Visible to <=100 Users) * (1 if Manifold markets exist and this info is public, 0 otherwise)
This question resolves to the proportion of Manifold markets created in January 2027 which are directly visible to more than 100 regular users of Manifold. The primary purpose is as a proxy to measure the extent to which personal, and/or AI-traders-only questions become important on Manifold. By default, most current Manifold markets questions as of 2024 are broadly publicly visible to all accounts (even if many don't actually receive >100 views).
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00