MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Open weight AI system below 100B parameters gets 5/6 on IMO 2026?
5
Ṁ123
2026
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolves YES if there is evidence that a system with fewer than 100B parameters gets 5/6 questions correct, without having seen the 2026 problem set.

https://x.com/DimitrisPapail/status/1947181274734440792?t=Z8gga8qntap7ZZr_tUEDJw&s=19

This should look something like being released no fewer than 2 weeks ahead of the 2026 IMO.

#Technical AI Timelines
#Competition Math
#AI Benchmarks
#IMO Grand Challenge
#IMO
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Comments

Related questions

How many points above the gold cutoff will the best 2026 IMO AI get?
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
31% chance
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
70% chance
Will AI get BOTH gold and either bronze or silver on the IMO by end of 2025?
56% chance
If there are medium-hard to tough problems on the 2026 IMO, will AI solve them?
What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?
How many perfect scores will there be at IMO 2026?

Related questions

How many points above the gold cutoff will the best 2026 IMO AI get?
If there are medium-hard to tough problems on the 2026 IMO, will AI solve them?
Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]
31% chance
What years will AI win IMO bronze (or higher)?
Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?
70% chance
How many years will pass between AI getting an IMO bronze medal and IMO perfect score?
Will AI get BOTH gold and either bronze or silver on the IMO by end of 2025?
56% chance
How many perfect scores will there be at IMO 2026?
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout