Will the Russia/Ukraine conflict conclusively end in 2024 ?
Will the Russia/Ukraine conflict conclusively end in 2024 ?
Plus
25
Ṁ3414Dec 31
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Either by Peace Treaty... or Victory by one side and Surrender of the other.
Get
1,000
and1.00
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
Learn more.1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.Related questions
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
55% chance
What will be true of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end during 2024?
1% chance
Will the Ukrainian-Russian war be considered out of a "stalemate" between now and the end of 2024?
38% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2024?
6% chance
Will there be peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
8% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2025?
50% chance
Will the Ukraine war be over by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will the Russia Ukraine conflict reach a conclusion by the end of 2026?
54% chance
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end by 2024 (explicitly by 1st of January 2025)?
7% chance