MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will we have weak AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
➕
Plus
14
Ṁ694
2100
72%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolution criteria are the same as for the metaculus question:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/

When will the first weakly general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?
The aggregate of 916 Metaculus community forecasters was Jan 17, 2027 on Aug 03, 2023.
#AI
#Technical AI Timelines
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Comments

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2028?
32% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
3% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
59% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
82% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
52% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
+4% 1d45% chance
Will we get AGI before 2038?
80% chance
Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
35% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
76% chance

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2028?
32% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
45% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
3% chance
Will we get AGI before 2038?
80% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
59% chance
Will we have strong AGI by 2030? (metaculus criteria)
35% chance
Will we get AGI before 2039?
82% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
52% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
76% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout