(This market and description have been heavily inspired and modified from Isaac King's 2023 version of this market:

)

Some markets are effectively "whoever spends the most mana wins everybody else's mana". This leads to a potentially very destructive dynamic where people are incentivized to continue buying mana with real money in an attempt to outspend everyone else, with a massive payoff if they succeed. These markets reward brinksmanship where whoever is most willing to risk damaging their real life financial situation will win, and can lead people who get emotionally invested in winning to lose huge amounts of real money.

Presumably Manifold does not want a reputation as a site where people gamble away their life savings, and they could attempt to address this by banning or implementing a spending cap on these sorts of markets.

This market resolves based on whether a regular-user-created whalebait ban is implemented and consistently enforced, in 2024. An announcement of a future ban is not enough.

Some Definitions:

regular-user: a user that isn't a partner, or a moderator, or an admin, or manifold itself. It may be that manifold allows occasional and heavily regulated/moderated whalebaits, and those would not prevent this market from resolving YES.

whalebait: A self-referential market where putting more currency into the market increases your odds of fulfilling the market resolution criteria in your advantage.

"ban": regular users cannot create these markets at all; if they do, the market gets N/Aed. It must be an official rule.

See also:

/IsaacKing/by-2024-will-anyone-blame-manifold

/IsaacKing/will-at-least-20-users-have-ragequi
/Bayesian/at-the-end-of-the-year-will-manifol-6d7e0871f43b