A quote from the end of a recent post on Nate Silver's Substack:

The past 20 years of American politics have mostly been characterized by stability: the 2020 electoral map didn’t look much different than the 2000 one. If the progressive coalition is breaking up, the next 20 could be much more fluid.

This question asks if this will be the case. It resolves YES if the absolute number of the 50 states that flip parties between 2040 and 2020 elections is more than the number that flipped between 2020 and 2000.

Explicitly, 7 states flipped between 2000 and 2020: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. So this question resolves YES if 8 or more states flip between 2020 and 2040.

Note that DC and individual districts within states don't count for the purposes of this market. Any additional states added to the union also won't count towards the total.