Will humanity get its hydrocarbon energy via solar-powered hydrocarbon synthesis in the next 20 years (ie by 2035)
Mini
11
Ṁ414
2035
35%
chance

As predicted by Terraform Industries CEO Casey Handmer in this Youtube video.

Casey predicted that

If you've got intermittent solar power in the desert, you can convert it to fungible, transportable natural gas (using Terraform's tech) and then ship it out using existing supply chains to wherever it is needed. This is how humanity will get it's hydrocarbon energy in the next 20-25 years. I'm going to say 20 years, you can hold me to that.

From Terraform's website:

Terraform Industries is scaling technology to produce cheap natural gas with sunlight and air. We are committed to cutting the net CO2 flux from crust to atmosphere as quickly as possible. As solar power gets cheaper, there will come a time when it is cheaper to get carbon from the atmosphere than an oil well. That time is now.

This answer resolves NO on 2035-01-01. It resolves yes if more than 75% of humanities hydrocarbon energy comes from synthetic means paired with solar power (as opposed to digging it up from the ground).

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