If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?
If X is the Democratic nominee for president in 2028, will they win the presidency?
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1D
1W
1M
ALL
57%
Raphael Warnock
56%
Josh Shapiro
55%
Tim Walz
55%
Gretchen Whitmer
55%
Dwayne Johnson
53%
Jon Stewart
51%
Mark Cuban
50%
Cory Booker
50%
Stacey Abrams
50%
Beto O'Rourke
50%
Andrew Cuomo
50%
Stephen A. Smith
48%
Gavin Newsom
45%
Michelle Obama
42%
Pete Buttigieg
40%
Chuck Schumer
40%
Hakeem Jeffries
37%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
37%
Andrew Yang
31%
Kamala Harris
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1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?
Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?
Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?
57% chance
Will a Democrat win the 2028 Presidential Election?
57% chance
Conditional on their 2024 nominee, will the Democratic candidate for president win in 2028?
Will the Democratic Party win the 2028 Presidential Election?
55% chance
Democrats win 2028 election?
57% chance
Will a Democrat be elected president in 2028?
57% chance
Will a democrat win the 2028 presidential election?
55% chance