Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
Will Russia detonate a nuclear device on Ukraine soil by December 31, 2026?
Mini
8
Ṁ11262027
1.7%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The delivery method of the device is irrelevant.
The device itself must detonate causing a nuclear chain reaction and explosion. A dirty bomb does not cause a chain reaction and so will resolve to “No.”
The territory of Ukraine is considered to be all territory claimed prior to the 2014 Russian invasion and seizure of Crimea and Donbas.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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