Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) exceeds $138,000 at any point before August 1, 2025. The highest price recorded on reputable financial platforms such as CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko will be used to determine the outcome. If Bitcoin does not exceed $138,000 by 11:59 PM UTC on July 31, 2025, the market will resolve to "No."

Background

As of July 13, 2025, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $118,769. The cryptocurrency has experienced significant growth in recent years, influenced by factors such as the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and a crypto-friendly stance from the U.S. administration. Notably, in March 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, further legitimizing Bitcoin as a reserve asset. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

Analysts have provided varied forecasts for Bitcoin's price in 2025. Some projections suggest that Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by late 2025, driven by institutional adoption and favorable regulatory environments. (reuters.com) However, the cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, and prices can be influenced by a range of factors, including regulatory changes, technological developments, and macroeconomic trends.