Will a company with at least $1B in revenue be run primarily by an AI CEO before 2030?
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16
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2030
23%
chance

The company must be primarily, not necessarily fully, run by an AI. The AI must do at least ~80% of every category of tasks that a normal CEO would do across the full distribution of tasks, including e.g. important strategic decisions. There are allowed to be overrides in place if the AI malfunctions or otherwise does something dumb, but the AI must do all categories of tasks and not just e.g. answer emails.

  • The AI must run the company for at least one month continuously

  • If the AI is named a CEO "in name only", it doesn't count. It has to actually do most of the tasks a CEO would.

  • The company must have had at least $1B in 2023 dollars in revenue in the most recent fiscal year.

I may edit this resolution criteria due to feedback by the end of 2023, after that it will not be edited, and I will try to maintain the spirit of the original question if I make edits.

I will not trade on this question.

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