This resolves based on the net-positivity score of the most recent polls I can find asking Americans, age 18 and above, what their opinion of Sam Altman and Mark Zuckerberg are. (I might get estimates for each from different polls or from the same poll).
Net-positivity scores are calculated as (sum of percentage of the population that has an overall positive sentiment) - (sum of percentage of the population that has an overall negative sentiment).
For instance, according to this YouGov poll of 1500 US adult citizens,from November 2023,
5% have a very favorable opinion of Sam Altman.
11% have a somewhat favorable opinion of him.
8% have a somewhat favorable opinion of him.
9% have a very unfavorable opinion of him
67% don't know.
Based on those numbers Sam's net positivity rating for 2023 would be (5+11) -(8+9) = -1.
Based on this poll about Zuckerburg, from 2021
6% have a very favorable opinion
16% have a somewhat favorable opinion
22% have a somewhat unfavorable opinion
32% have a very unfavorable opinion
24% don't know or don't have an opinion,
...for a total net-positivity score of -32.
Basically, I want to know, if in 2027, if people's attitude towards Altman will be better or worse than their attitude towards Zuckerberg.
Not that I'm asking about how they will compare at the time. If people's opinion of Zuckerberg improves, that matters as much as if people's opinion of Altman declines.
I plan to use the most recent polls I can find that have sample size of 1500 people or greater, by an established polling company (Gallup, Pew, YouGov, etc). If there are several polls that were produced in the six months leading up to the the market close, I'll average them together, but I don't want to spend a bunch of time trying to exhaustively find every poll that might have been made in that period. Probably what I'll end up doing is looking for the first one that I can find, and also soliciting for additional polls in the comments.
See also: https://manifold.markets/EliTyre/will-americans-like-sam-altman-over
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