10 companies with 1b us$ revenue and <10 employees created and exist by mid 2028
10 companies with 1b us$ revenue and <10 employees created and exist by mid 2028
Plus
7
Ṁ3852028
43%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10 companies with the criteria will exist sometime before end of market. If it can be shown so, then YES
Criteria for a company
Private or public, but an independent company
<10 employees either before being bought, or at the moment it was bought
Revenue either now if it's independent, or when it was sold of >1b 2024 USD, inflation adjusted
As hunted at by this podcast with Marc Andreessen
https://youtu.be/Fw4p85jSfQc?si=xsKTQ837mRNQBWQH
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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