I have a 2023 model Y and drive on current FSD somewhat, maybe 100 miles a week. I often drive San Mateo to Palo Alto. By time, about 5 minutes is surface streets in San Mateo, then 15 minutes highway, then 2 min surface streets in Palo Alto.
When will this become true:
I can drive without hands on wheel and without attention, playing with my phone or watching a movie. This is SAE3 or higher
For nearly all of the highway
And for at least half of the initial surface streets part
Legally
With my actual Tesla model or replacement newer Tesla
Making an honest effort to keep things safe and help FSD to succeed
With an average of < 1 emergency disengagement per trip over 10 trips
Where I control when to start and stop FSD, but generally don't manage it turn by turn, so I'll start driving, get to a known good point, turn it on, it navigates to the highway, drives there, exits then I disengage and finish the drive.
When this happens this market resolves YES
When April 1 2027 passes the market is over. As each time interval passes it will be resolved NO. In the end there will only be one right answer.
Background
The initial driving involves steep roads, narrow turns, big intersections, confusing turn arrows and stoplights. I haven't bothered to catalogue the current problems FSD would have but I'd guess at least 3 disengagements per trip or more. It would be pretty stressful to try letting it handle those big intersections. I bet it could today mostly do the highway okay but even that is challenging. There's lots of stop and go, lots of driving fast next to completely stopped jammed traffic, and hard fast merges off and on. The final section also has three difficult merges; FSD handles the first two well but regularly fails the third since the a white line is incorrectly painted making FSD unwilling to change lanes and often miss the turn. This section doesn't need to be fixed to achieve YES.
I will not add more options.
Here is the annual version:
1,000
1.00