Which of these 12 politicians will no longer be in power first? Leaving first => 100% all others go to 0%
Which of these 12 politicians will no longer be in power first? Leaving first => 100% all others go to 0%
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1D
1W
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50%
Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine and Palestinian National Authority, 1935
3%
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Supreme Leader of Iran, 1939
5%
Donald Trump, US President, 1946
3%
Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of India, 1950
4%
Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, 1952
2%
Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, 1953
14%
Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, 1954
3%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, President of Turkey, 1954
3%
Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, 1962
3%
Viktor Orbán, Prime Minister of Hungary, 1963
7%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, 1978
3%
Kim Jong Un, Supreme Leader of North Korea, 1982/1983/1984
When they lose their current high office or pass away or retire. Note if they take on another role, even if it's significant within the country, if it's not higher than their current role in actual power, then they will be considered to have lost power.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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