Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 2% in one day in 2025 after April 4, 2025?
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 2% in one day in 2025 after April 4, 2025?
22
Ṁ6286Dec 31
90%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
After April 4, 2025, this will happen again.
Resolution Criteria: The market will be based on closing prices only, comparing the close to close price movement from one day to the next.
Intraday Prices: Any price movements within the trading day will not be considered.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the S&P 500 AGAIN decrease by over 5% in one day in 2025?
46% chance
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?
82% chance
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 5% twice more in one day in 2025?
50% chance
Will 2025 have days where the S&P 500 both increases and decreases by over 5%?
42% chance
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 20% in one day in 2025?
2% chance
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 20% in any quarter of 2025?
61% chance
Will the S&P 500 decrease by over 10% in any quarter of 2025?
81% chance