Mauro Cid, a former aide to ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, is currently under investigation for his potential involvement in a conspiracy to assassinate prominent political figures in Brazil. The Polícia Federal (PF) has raised concerns that Cid may have omitted critical information during his recent testimony regarding a plan to kill President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. Following his latest deposition on November 19, 2024, the PF submitted a request to the Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) to annul the benefits of Cid’s delação premiada, citing unsatisfactory responses and apparent contradictions in his statements.12

Investigators have indicated that if Cid continues to deny knowledge of the assassination plot or fails to provide comprehensive information, he may lose the protections granted under his plea agreement, which could result in a return to prison.3 His defense attorney has publicly denied any wrongdoing and asserted that Cid was unaware of any plans for violence.4 However, evidence gathered from communications and documents suggests otherwise, leading to heightened scrutiny of his cooperation with authorities.5

Resolution Criteria

• Outcome Determination: This prediction market will resolve based on whether Mauro Cid loses any benefits associated with his delação premiada by December 31, 2025.

• Verification Sources: Official announcements from the STF or the Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR) regarding decisions on Cid’s plea agreement will serve as the primary sources for resolution.

• Conditions for Payout:

  • If it is confirmed that Mauro Cid’s delação premiada benefits are revoked due to omissions or lack of cooperation as alleged by the PF, participants who predicted a loss will receive payouts.

  • Conversely, if he retains his benefits or if no action is taken by authorities within the specified timeframe, those who predicted retention will be rewarded.

Footnotes

1. PF requests annulment of Mauro Cid’s plea agreement benefits (Correio Braziliense)↩

2. PF alleges omissions in Mauro Cid’s testimony and requests annulment (Carta Capital)↩

3. Mauro Cid risks losing plea deal benefits and being re-arrested (CNN Brasil)↩

4. Cid denies knowledge of assassination plot, says lawyer (G1)↩

5. PF alleges omissions in plea deal testimony, STF to decide (G1)↩