Background The UK government has passed the Automated Vehicles Act, allowing self-driving cars on UK roads from 2026, though these will still require a "user-in-charge." While some experts predict Level 5 autonomy (full automation) could be commercially available by the 2030s, many remain skeptical about this timeline due to technical challenges and safety concerns.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if by December 31, 2030:

• A service offering autonomous taxis is publicly available to customers in London

• The vehicles operate without a safety driver or "user-in-charge" present in the vehicle

• The service is available for regular commercial use (not just testing or demonstrations)

• The service operates in at least 25% of London's geographic area

The market will resolve NO if any of these criteria are not met by December 31, 2030.

Considerations

• While autonomous vehicle technology is advancing rapidly, achieving full autonomy in complex urban environments like London presents unique challenges

• Regulatory approval and public acceptance may impact timeline even if technology is ready

• Limited or restricted deployments (e.g., only in certain areas or weather conditions) may precede full commercial availability

• The presence of a remote operator monitoring the vehicle would not disqualify it from being considered "self-driving" for this market's purposes, as long as there is no human present in the vehicle