This market is a direct copy of a question from INFER.  The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.

The description of the original market:

Many building blocks are needed to support life, including water, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen gas (Smithsonian Magazine). To be considered “potentially habitable”, a planet must be up to 2.5 times the size of the Earth or up to 10 times Earth’s mass and orbit the right distance from its star for liquid water to possibly be present (Planetary Habitability Laboratory).

Resolution Criteria:  

As of 1 February 2024, the Habitable Worlds Catalog identified 69 potentially habitable worlds out of over five thousand known exoplanets, with five of them added to the list in 2023. This question will be resolved as “Yes” if the Habitable Worlds Catalog adds 5 or more new potentially habitable worlds to the list (i.e., the sum of their conservative and optimistic samples) discovered on or before 31 December 2024. To allow for planets discovered late in the year to be added to the catalog, this question will be resolved on or after 31 January 2025.

Question clarification

Issued on 03/01/24 04:39pm
This question will be resolved on or after 31 January 2025 to allow time for planets discovered at the end of the year to be added to the Habitable Worlds Catalog, and the resolution criteria for this question has been updated to this effect.