Will Aella convert to sexually conservative Christianity by the end of [year]?
Will Aella convert to sexually conservative Christianity by the end of [year]?
Plus
4
Ṁ12k2028
1D
1W
1M
ALL
1%
2025
1%
2026
1%
2027
Resolved
NO2024
On December 30, 2023 Justin Murphy said, "we need a prediction market for Aella reverting to Christianity in the next 5 years." In response @Aella created the question Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?2%. I would like to collect the mana of YES holders sooner rather than later, so I created this question.
I plan to resolve answers soon after the end of each year. If @Aella converts within a given year, then I will resolve that year and all following years to YES.
For the purposes of this question (based on Justin Murphy's tweet and @Aella's question), it cannot be liberal Christianity, it has to be a version of Christianity that requires some sort of sexual conservatism.
Tweet from Justin Murphy:
Question created by @Aella:
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?
2% chance
Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?
3% chance
Will Aella have a child by 2030?
73% chance
Will Aella be arrested before the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will Ayaan Hirsi Ali recant from Christianity before 2026?
13% chance
Will I (Aella) find someone to seriously date by the end of 2029?
76% chance
Will AellaGirl get AIDS by 2035
6% chance
Will Aella spend at least 1 month in prison before the end of 2027?
6% chance
Aella switches to a private life through 2030
33% chance
Will Aella carry a pregnancy to term before she turns 45?
53% chance