In 2040, who will Manifold vote as having had the most positive impact on the development of AI in the 21st century?
Mini
16
Ṁ10422040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
47%
14%
Ilya Sutskever
8%
Dario Amodei
7%
Sam Altman
6%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
5%
Demis Hassabis
4%
Paul Christiano
3%
Geoffrey Hinton
1.6%
Yann LeCun
"Positive" in whatever sense it's interpreted by the individual. Could be capabilities, safety, adoption, whatever.
I'll run the poll in January of 2040.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
At the beginning of 2025, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
64% chance
Will Manifold be cited in a paper from a top-tier AI lab or AI journal before 2025?
11% chance
What decade will be considered the decade of the most rapid technological progress in 2040 by Manifold?
When will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion on Manifold?
Will an AI become TIME's Person of The Year by 2030?
65% chance
An AI is trustworthy-ish on Manifold by 2030?
46% chance
At the beginning of 2040, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
67% chance
TIME 100 most influential people in AI 2025
At the beginning of 2026, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?
66% chance
Which company or organization will be the first to develop strong AGI as defined by Manifold?