Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
Plus
12
Ṁ2282028
13%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Includes both offensive detonations and "tests" used to intimidate people. Any country could be the progenitor as long as it's clearly mostly about the Israel-Hamas conflict or whatever larger conflict grows out of that. (e.g. Russia launching a missile at Ukraine does not count, but Russia launching a missile at Israel does count.)
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2028?
24% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
10% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2025?
14% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
27% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
17% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
23% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
17% chance
Will there be further proliferation of nuclear weapons until 2028?
73% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated somewhere in the world before 2033?
47% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
19% chance