Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed as a result of a deliberate attempt on his life) before the end of his presidential term ending January 20, 2029. It will also resolve YES if he is rendered so injured (brain death, coma, etc.) by an assassination attempt that he is forced to end his presidency. It resolves NO if he completes his term without being assassinated or leaves office early for reasons other than assassination (such as resignation, impeachment, or natural death). If he resigns as a result of fear of assassination this market will also resolve NO.

Background

Donald Trump has already survived at least two known assassination attempts in 2024:

1. On July 13, 2024, at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Trump was wounded when a shooter fired at him, killing one attendee before being killed by Secret Service.

2. In September 2024, another attempt occurred at Trump's West Palm Beach golf course when an armed individual was spotted by Secret Service before being able to carry out an attack.

There have also been other attempts. Following these incidents, Trump's security detail has been significantly enhanced. The Secret Service has implemented additional protective measures for the President-elect and will continue to do so throughout his presidency.

Considerations

Presidential assassinations are historically rare events in the United States. Only four U.S. presidents have been assassinated while in office: Abraham Lincoln (1865), James Garfield (1881), William McKinley (1901), and John F. Kennedy (1963). However, the recent attempts on Trump's life demonstrate ongoing security concerns.