To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support mental-health / subjective-wellbeing interventions, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.

By "mental-health / subjective-wellbeing", I mean charities like Kaya Guides, Vida Plena, Canopie, and Strongminds. In general, any developing-world charitable intervention that is primarily motivated by a Happier-Lives-Institute-style focus on subjective wellbeing surveys (rather than Givewell-style measures of increased lifespan or income) would count.

"EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel. This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.

For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like alcohol/tobacco taxation and farmed-invertebrate welfare!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!