MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Mutual defence clause of NATO triggered before 2026
Mini
10
Ṁ463
Dec 31
4%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

Resolves YES if Article V of the NATO constitution is triggered before January 1st 2026 (GMT), otherwise resolves NO.

NATO Article V has been triggered only once before, after the 9/11 attacks on the United States.

Will resolve based on the preponderance of evidence available to the public on January 1st 2026. I may bet a small amount of mana on this market (<100 mana).

#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Geopolitics
#️ Wars
#NATO
#Nuclear Risk
Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00
Comments

Related questions

Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?
7% chance
A NATO member officially announces intention to leave NATO before 2026
16% chance
NATO summit June 2025, what will happen ?
Will NATO still exist by the end of 2025?
97% chance
Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
50% chance
Will Article 4 of NATO be triggered before the end of 2026?
15% chance
Will a NATO member send troops to Ukraine before 2026?
27% chance
Will there be a new (non-Sweden) NATO member before 2026?
5% chance
Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?
19% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
5% chance

Related questions

Will NATO article 5 (collective Defense) be instigated before the end of 2025?
7% chance
Will Article 4 of NATO be triggered before the end of 2026?
15% chance
A NATO member officially announces intention to leave NATO before 2026
16% chance
Will a NATO member send troops to Ukraine before 2026?
27% chance
NATO summit June 2025, what will happen ?
Will there be a new (non-Sweden) NATO member before 2026?
5% chance
Will NATO still exist by the end of 2025?
97% chance
Will a NATO or EU nation declare a national emergency due to AI before 2026?
19% chance
Will any NATO member country invoke Article 4 by the end of 2030?
50% chance
Will Russia invade a NATO country before 2026?
5% chance
Terms & Conditions•Privacy Policy•Sweepstakes Rules
BrowseElectionNewsAbout