Will the delinquency rate for commercial real estate loans in the U.S. exceed 2% for any quarter before 2026?
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Ṁ1382026
82%
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I will use "Delinquency Rate on Commercial Real Estate Loans (Excluding Farmland), Booked in Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks (DRCRELEXFACBS)" from the St Louis Fed:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCRELEXFACBS
If this index is above 2% for any quarter before Q1 2026, I will resolve YES, and NO otherwise.
The intention of this market is to assess fears that remote work could lead to a decline in office space rents and cause a financial crisis for small banks that are overexposed on these loans.
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