Before 2025-07-31

Resolution criteria are prone to change since I'm no expert on radiation poisoning, which is why I won't bet.

Some gestures at what I mean:

• individual assassinations don't count

• the poisoning needs to have been a consequence of intentional or risky military action

• radiation poisoning due to a failed medical procedure don't count

• nukes, or nuclear meltdowns count

• I don't think small-arm ammunition tends to be radioactive, but if it is, then it doesn't count.

Finally, a no-doom clause:

• if more than 5% of the world population dies due to an event that would otherwise resolve this market to "yes", this market resolves N/A.

This is because I like my markets's probability to, in theory, reflect the true probability.

Consider asking for clarification (here or in DMs, though DM-clarifications will eventually be published here) before placing large bets.