If Argentina attempts to invade the Falkland Islands before 2040, will it succeed?
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4
áš602040
29%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES on British media consensus that Argentina seized and held the Falkland Islands for at least a week.
Resolves NO on British media consensus that Argentina attempted to invade and failed, even if that attempt foundered before soldiers left Argentinian airspace.
Otherwise resolves NA
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