Will any aircraft carrier be lost at sea before 2036?
Mini
5
Ṁ472036
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
'Aircraft carrier' is defined as a ship which operates manned fixed-wing aircraft.
'Lost at sea' is defined as an unintentional sinking, potentially due to hostile action but potentially due to bad weather or poor maintenance/accidents.
Note that some of the ships in this list do not meet the criteria of operating manned fixed-wing aircraft.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aircraft_carriers_in_service
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
27% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2050?
34% chance
Will any military vessel of more than 15,000 tonnes be lost at sea before 2036?
53% chance
Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?
58% chance
Will China sink a US aircraft carrier before 2030?
16% chance
Will the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning sink before 2033
19% chance
Will the keel be laid for a third Royal Navy Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier prior to January 2030?
29% chance
The USA loses an aircraft carrier through 2030
19% chance
Will any navy ship of more than 2,000 tonnes be sunk in ship-to-ship combat before 2036?
48% chance
Will an F-35 be lost by the US in 2025
57% chance