Resolution criteria

• Resolves YES if, by 23:59 Cairo time on December 31, 2029, there is public confirmation that Israel’s ground combat forces (IDF) crossed the internationally recognized Egypt–Israel border into Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula to conduct hostile military operations or seize/hold territory without Egypt’s public consent. Acceptable confirmations:

  • Official statements from the IDF media releases page, the Egyptian Ministry of Defense/Armed Forces, or the Multinational Force & Observers (MFO). (idf.il)

  • Or reporting by at least two of Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, or Financial Times stating that IDF ground units entered Sinai for combat/occupation, with no contrary official clarification within 72 hours. (reuters.com)

• “Sinai Peninsula” means Egyptian territory east of the Suez Canal (North Sinai and South Sinai governorates). (britannica.com)

• Resolves NO if no such confirmation occurs by the deadline.

• Exclusions (do NOT alone trigger YES): air/drone/missile strikes; artillery or small-arms fire across the border; incidents confined to Gaza’s Philadelphi Corridor; accidental brief crossings promptly acknowledged as errors; any IDF entry conducted with Egypt’s explicit, public authorization or under MFO/peace-treaty mechanisms. (mfo.org)

Background

• Egypt and Israel signed a peace treaty on March 26, 1979; Israel completed its withdrawal and Sinai returned to full Egyptian sovereignty on April 25, 1982. The treaty established demilitarized/limited-force zones in Sinai, monitored by the MFO. (peacemaker.un.org)

• Reports in 2018 alleged covert Israeli airstrikes in Sinai against ISIS with Cairo’s approval; Egypt publicly denied the NYT report. Air operations (even if confirmed) would not meet this market’s “ground invasion” threshold. (bbc.com)

• Border tensions around Rafah (Gaza–Egypt) in 2024, including a fatal shooting of an Egyptian soldier, did not involve Israeli forces entering Egyptian Sinai. (reuters.com)

Considerations

• A confirmed IDF ground incursion into Sinai would be unprecedented since the 1979 treaty and likely prompt immediate MFO and government statements, aiding verification. (mfo.org)

• Be alert to ambiguous phrasing (“operations near Rafah,” “along the border”): verify whether sources explicitly state IDF ground forces crossed into Egyptian territory in Sinai. Prefer official releases and top-tier wires for resolution. (idf.il)