Will the UK and Spain reach an agreement on the future sovereignty of Gibraltar before 2035?
Will the UK and Spain reach an agreement on the future sovereignty of Gibraltar before 2035?
Mini
0
2034
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Please note:
In this description I explicitly acknowledge that the format of the question denies Gibraltarians' self-sovereignty, in a way that such an agreement might (although it might not, and consideration of this should be factored into betting).
If Gibraltar was a party to any agreement over its sovereignty that also included the UK and Spain this would not affect a YES resolution.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will the UK and Spain reach an agreement on the future sovereignty of Gibraltar before 2030?
33% chance
Will the UK and Spain reach an agreement on the future sovereignty of Gibraltar before 2027?
22% chance
Will the UK and Argentina sign a sovereignty treaty over the Falkland Islands before 2040?
28% chance
Will Britain agree on a deal to give Mauritius the Chagos islands by the end of 2025?
75% chance
Will a crossing of the Strait of Gibraltar, between Morocco and Spain, have started construction by 2035?
33% chance
Will the UK rejoin the EU by 2035?
17% chance
Will the UK rejoin the EU before 2032?
5% chance
Will the UK apply to rejoin the EU before 2030?
14% chance
Will Spain lose any territory before 01/01/2030? (Either land or territorial waters)
14% chance
Will the UK declare a special economic zone before 2035?
57% chance