Will the US Navy commission more than four Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
Mini
1
Ṁ12045
51%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Commissioning is the formal entry into service of a ship, not the act of ordering its construction.
Resolves YES if the US commissions a fifth Ford-class carrier.
Resolves NO if the US formally commits not to construct and commission a fifth Ford-class carrier AND a US presidential election has taken place subsequent to that decision AND the decision is not reversed by the winner of that election (three months after swearing in)
The NO criteria seem a bit over the top, but apart from applying 'by X year' instead, which I don't want to do, they may be the best choice.
Get
1,000
and1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the US Navy commission more than five Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
47% chance
Will the US Navy commission more than three Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carriers?
70% chance
Will China have 4 aircraft carriers by the end of 2027?
75% chance
Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2025?
34% chance
Will the US Navy commission a new battleship by the end of 2028?
38% chance
Will the U.S. Navy announce that it will purchase ships built in Japan or South Korea in 2024?
10% chance
Will the USA's CVN-81 "Doris Miller" Aircraft Carrier be launched and commissioned by the end of 2032 as planned?
47% chance
[Metaculus] Will a US aircraft carrier be destroyed in combat before 2030?
27% chance
Will the Royal Navy plan to commission more than six Type 83 destroyers?
41% chance
Will China's next (fourth) aircraft carrier be nuclear-powered?
76% chance