Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if Israel carries out any military strikes (air, drone, artillery, or other) against targets in Lebanon by 31 December 2025. Strikes include airstrikes, drone attacks, artillery fire, or any other offensive military action. The market resolves NO if no such strikes occur by the deadline.

Resolution will be determined by reports from credible news sources including Reuters, AP, Al Jazeera, BBC, or official statements from the Israeli military or Lebanese government.

Background

A US-brokered ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel went into effect in November 2024, ending a 14-month conflict that killed over 4,000 people in Lebanon. However, Israeli warplanes have carried out near-daily attacks across southern Lebanon since the ceasefire, targeting what the military claims are Hezbollah training facilities. Lebanese army officials have documented 5,198 Israeli violations of the ceasefire, including 657 air strikes, by the end of November.

The Trump administration has set a December 31 deadline to disarm Hezbollah, and Israel says it is keeping up pressure to force Hezbollah to disarm. Tensions escalated when Israel bombed Beirut's southern suburbs, killing Hezbollah's top military commander, Haytham Ali Tabatabai.

Considerations

The ceasefire has been described as "a one-sided truce, since Israel has continued near-daily attacks on the country". Given the pattern of continuous Israeli military operations throughout the ceasefire period and the approaching December 31 deadline for Hezbollah disarmament, the question of whether Israel will strike Lebanon by year-end is essentially asking whether this pattern will continue through the end of 2025.