Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a *JAIL* Cell? (Not a *prison* cell)
Will Donald Trump ever see the inside of a *JAIL* Cell? (Not a *prison* cell)
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28
Ṁ15962047
27%
chance
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1W
1M
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This market resolves YES if Donald Trump ever spends 1 full night locked in a jail cell.
Note this is about Trump ever spending even one night in JAIL anytime in the rest of his life.
For definitions, I'm going with Merriam-Webster here:
PRISON: “a place of confinement especially for lawbreakers”
JAIL: “a place of confinement for persons held in lawful custody”
A "full night" is defined as the time period between 10:00 PM and 6:00 AM, in whatever local jursidiction he's in.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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