Resolution criteria

GTA 6 is currently scheduled to release on November 19, 2026. This market resolves YES if Rockstar Games officially announces a delay to any date after November 19, 2026. Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive via their official channels (Rockstar Newswire, official social media accounts, or earnings calls). This market resolves NO if the game launches on or before November 19, 2026.

Background

GTA 6 was originally on target for a fall 2025 release until the developer announced in May that the game would not be ready until May 26, 2026. The game was then delayed again by six months from its previously set May 2026 release date to November 2026. The majority of Rockstar's biggest games over the past decade-plus have all been delayed beyond their originally announced release windows, including Grand Theft Auto IV, Red Dead Redemption, Grand Theft Auto V, and Red Dead Redemption II.

Considerations

Rockstar has a long history of announcing release dates and then missing them, with the majority of its biggest games over the past decade-plus being delayed beyond their originally announced release windows. However, once a solid date has been confirmed, Rockstar tends to hit that on time—for example, Red Dead Redemption 2 originally had two release windows but only when it was delayed to October 26, 2018 was it finalized, and wasn't delayed anymore after that.