How many classical games will be needed to decide the World Chess Championship 2024 (the Ding Liren - Gukesh D match)
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Ṁ33k
resolved Dec 12
100%98.5%
Decided after 14 games
0.1%
Decided after 8 (or fewer) games
0.1%
Decided after 9 games
0.1%
Decided after 10 games
0.1%
Decided after 11 games
0.1%
Decided after 12 games
0.1%
Decided after 13 games
0.8%
Tiebreaks needed

The match is best out of 14 games, which means that it finishes as soon as one of the players reaches 7.5, which is possible in 8 games. It's also possible (albeit unlikely) that one of the players forfeits the match in even fewer games

If tied after 14 games (7-7), the match will be decided in tiebreaks

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024

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bought Ṁ50 Decided after 13 games YES

Here's all 21 possible scenarios for the final 3 games https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/exact-result-of-games-12-13-14-in-w

bought Ṁ50 Decided after 11 games YES

Pre-registering my take here so I look like a genius or idiot (but most likely genius) : Gukesh wins 7.5-3.5 by drawing or winning game 11. Ding is subsequently sentenced to 5 years hard labor in a Chinese gulag to strengthen his character

@dlin007 wee bit wrong :(