How does humanity establish its first permanent colony within the Alpha Centauri system?
How does humanity establish its first permanent colony within the Alpha Centauri system?
Mini
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Ṁ82Jan 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
30%
Generation Ships
7%
Frozen embryo probes
10%
Ships equipped with Nuclear Pulse Propulsion engines
10%
Von Neumann constructors that 3D print the human genome on site.
42%Other
Let us assume that humanity, or their "transhuman" descendants, manage to reach the Apha Centauri and establish a permanent extrasolar colony. How did they accomplish this?
I've listed some possible ways in which it might happen. You can add your own suggestions to the list as well. There will be no restrictions on adding "exotic" technologies to the mix, but do make sure that they can be derived/extrapolated from currently known physics.
Will resolve to the option listed as the most widely agreed upon method at the end of 2024.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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