This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Georgia in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Georgia, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
1,000
1.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 𝕊64.67 | |
| 2 | 𝕊46.35 | |
| 3 | 𝕊45.91 | |
| 4 | 𝕊43.71 | |
| 5 | 𝕊37.65 |
CNN's early exit poll shows independents at +11 Trump. it was +9 Biden in 2020. It may be joever
Georgia 2020 EV+Mail:
Female +12.3
White +28.8
Atlanta counties*: 36% of votes cast
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA.html
Georgia 2024 EV+Mail:
Female +12.1
White +31.5
Atlanta counties*: 34% of votes cast
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-georgia/
* Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, DeKalb
Using the early vote data and setting all county votes equal to their individual 2020 percentages gives:
Trump + 27,870 (0.7%)
Equal to 2022 senate percentages gives:
Harris + 100,476 (2.5%)
arbitrage opportunity:
https://manifold.markets/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-9d5b554982a7
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00