Will Tucker Carlson relocate to Russia and spend more than two consecutive months there by December 31, 2025?
Will Tucker Carlson relocate to Russia and spend more than two consecutive months there by December 31, 2025?
➕
Plus
24
Ṁ2574
2026
18%
chance

꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1f8ixvh/mmw_tucker_carlson_is_going_to_move_to_russia/

Resolution Criteria:

  1. The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

    • Tucker Carlson moves to Russia and spends more than 60 consecutive days there before or on December 31, 2025

    • There is credible evidence of his extended stay, such as public appearances, social media posts, or official statements

  2. The market will resolve as "No" if:

    • Tucker Carlson does not relocate to Russia by December 31, 2025

    • He visits Russia but stays for 60 days or less consecutively

  3. The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:

    • Tucker Carlson passes away before December 31, 2025

    • International travel restrictions or sanctions prevent him from entering or staying in Russia

Resolution Sources:

  • Official statements from Tucker Carlson or his representatives

  • Credible news reports from reputable international media outlets

  • Russian government announcements or visa records (if made public)

  • Social media posts or public appearances clearly indicating an extended stay in Russia

Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on December 31, 2025, or when credible evidence of Carlson's 60+ day stay in Russia is confirmed, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:

  • The 60-day period must be consecutive; multiple shorter stays that add up to more than 60 days do not qualify

  • The specific reasons for the extended stay are not relevant to the resolution of this market

  • Collaboration with Russian media while residing in Russia is not required for a "Yes" resolution, only the duration of stay matters

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.