Will Kirill Shevchenko be banned from FIDE for six months or more by the end of 2025?
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Chess grandmaster Kirill Shevchenko was accused of using a mobile phone during a FIDE rated chess match at the Spanish team championship. https://www.chess.com/news/view/kirill-shevchenko-expelled-spanish-team-championship A phone was found in the toilet with a note on it that, according to the tournament's arbiter, matched Shevchenko's handwriting. Shevchenko had previously been noticed using the bathroom frequently. Shevchenko was DQed from the tournament. Shevchenko has denied the accusation.

The last similarly high rated player to be banned for cheating was Isa Kasimi (formerly Igors Rausis) who was banned for 6 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isa_Kasimi

Will FIDE ban Shevchenko from all FIDE rated tournaments for a period of 6 months or more by the end of 2025?

If FIDE's initial ruling occurs before the end of 2025, but the appeals process is ongoing, I will (using my discretion) wait until at most the end of 2026 and then rule based off the state of the appeals process. The question resolves positively as long as the initial ruling occurs before the end of 2025, even if he doesn't serve his ban until later.

I won't bet in this market.

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