Will UMA over turn a Polymarket clarification by Dec 31, 2024?
Polymarket has started issuing authoritative clarifications that will state how a market should resolve. So far UMA has voted in accordance with these. However, if UMA resolves a market in the opposite direction of this clarification this will resolve Yes.
If UMA decides to not resolve a market either in favor or in opposition to a clarification (UMA lets the market stay unresolved by not meeting quorum on the vote) then this will resolve as Yes (as this is equivalent to overturning a Polymarket clarification).
Else, this will resolve as No.
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1.00@Mana I read this as meaning that voting P4 on a clarification that said it should resolve P2 would count:
If UMA decides to not resolve a market either in favor or in opposition to a clarification (UMA lets the market stay unresolved by not meeting quorum on the vote) then this will resolve as Yes (as this is equivalent to overturning a Polymarket clarification).
@AaronSimansky The clarification was that a broad consensus of reliable media reported that a ceasefire took place at 4 AM. Both proposals happened before 4 AM. UMA is therefore not contradicting the clarification - they accept it, and have merely interpreted it to mean that only proposals after 4 AM were on time. They will vote P2 this round, but if they don't, this market should definitely resolve yes.
@Mana The most recent proposal was made after 4AM, and the other two were not. That's the crucial difference. Timing matters with UMA. If you propose that team x won a game, and they did win, but when you proposed there were still 37 seconds left on the clock, UMA will P4 you.