Will U.S. production of battery-grade lithium exceed 10% of global supply by the end of 2030?
13
Ṁ4832030
73%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves YES if, by Feb 1, 2031, credible sources (e.g., USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, IEA reports, or BloombergNEF data) confirm that U.S.-sourced battery-grade lithium production (including refined output from domestic mines, recycling, and new processing facilities) is estimated to account for more than 10% of total global battery-grade lithium supply for 2030 or any previous year. "Battery-grade" refers to lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) suitable for EV and energy storage batteries. If data is unavailable or ambiguous, resolve NO.
Get
1,000and
1.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?
29% chance
Will the USA have >=1TWh/yr of installed lithium ion battery production capacity by 2030?
81% chance
Lithium Hydroxide above $8 USD/kg at EOY2025?
66% chance
Will electric vehicles make up more than 25% of new US car sales by the end of 2025?
2% chance
Will the US be a top 3 lithium producer in 2033?
64% chance
Will Tesla's market share of EVs sold in the US be above 50% in 2025?
16% chance
Electricity generation per capita: Will China overtake the US by end of 2035?
45% chance
US imports more lithium for consumption in 2026 than 2024?
75% chance
Will Lithium stop being the most popular rechargeable battery chemistry before 2100?
70% chance
When will Lithium stop being the #1 by USD market share rechargeable battery chemistry?