When will a Starship booster first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
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8
Ṁ677
2035
51%
2026 or earlier
73%
2027 or earlier
84%
2028 or earlier
87%
2029 or earlier
90%
2032 or earlier
93%
2035 or earlier

Resolves YES once an individual Starship Super Heavy booster launches as part of a full stack launch, lands/is caught, and then launches again from the same launch tower/pad it landed at - without being removed from that tower in between the landing and relaunch

The booster can be picked up by the chopsticks (or equivalent), but if it is placed down on anything other than the launch mount (or equivalent) it is counted as having been removed

Work done on the vehicle while it's on the launch mount (or equivalent) does not invalidate it

The launches themselves don't need to be successful

Starship Super Heavy booster does not need to be its exact name but it must be the first stage of a vehicle referred to in some sense as Starship and must have extensive shared heritage with the current SpaceX vehicle

I've tried to make this market resilient to any changes SpaceX could make in how Starship is supposed to launch and land - but I won't participate in this market just in case it is ambiguous

UTC is used for dates

Please ask if you want anything clarified

Related market asking about the second stage instead:

/Nat/when-will-a-starship-first-land-and

/Nat/when-will-a-starship-booster-first-1311e8827875

/Nat/when-will-starship-first-relaunch-i

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