Each resolves to 20% per game that the opening is played in the 2024 World Chess Championship match EXCEPT for the 1-move openings like 1.e4 which get 10% per game instead.
Tiebreaks are not included.
Transpositions count (that is any game where the position is the same after the right number of moves counts, even if the moves come in a different order).
Add options but be sure to list the moves to remove ambiguity (or at least the last move if there are too many e.g. you can do "Marshall Attack 8 c3 d5"). The options do not need to be mutually exclusive, we can add sub-variations.
1,000
1.00Some of these are difficult to judge, since they transpose after the moves stated. For example, a Queen's Gambit was reached in the match after 1. d4 Nf6 2. Nf3 d5 3. c4 e6, but as the market lists only 1. d4 d5 2. c4, so I assume it has to resolve to 0% (it's a transposition, but not after the specified number of moves). Something similar happens with the Anti-Nimzo -- the market lists 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nf3. After 3... d5 this transposes into the above, but that isn't the right number of moves, so I assume the Anti-Nimzo option must also resolve 0%.
@Calibrate I clarified it below to mean exact match to the position specified by the moves given which is also how it is stated in the description (“any game where the position is the same after the right number of moves counts”) so that is how I will resolve it.
I think "King's Indian" might be a misleading name, if I understand the rules right, since 1d4 Nf6 2c4 g6 is also the standard move order to go into a Grünfeld. Maybe should be renamed to "King's Indian/Grünfeld".
With the current names/definitions, it seems like we must have P(King's Indian)>P(Grünfeld), since it's extremely unlikely that we'll see something like 1c4 Nf6 2 Nc3 d5 3 d4 g6.
"Transpositions count (that is any game where the position is the same after the right number of moves counts, even if the moves come in a different order)."
What does this mean if the move order e.g. is 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.Nf3 d5 4.g3? This transposes to a Catalan, but taken literally, I would say that "Catalan" as specified here resolves as no, since we don't transpose to the position after 1.d4 Nf6 2.c4 e6 3.g3. Is that what is intended?
@BenjaminTereick yes that's right. I want to make the resolution clear and objective, even if this doesn't perfectly capture traditional categorization of openings. I don't want to have to decide if 1. c4 Nf6 2. Nf3 c6 3. d4 g6 4. Nc3 Bg7 5. g3 d5 is a "Queen's Gambit" or a "King's Indian" or both, for instance.