This market predicts whether an AI-powered chatbot or virtual assistant (like ChatGPT, Bing Chat, Google Bard, etc.) will surpass Google Search in number of searches per month by December 31, 2030 .In recent years, AI chatbots have rapidly advanced in their ability to provide direct answers to questions by drawing upon large language models. Rather than just returning a list of links like traditional search engines, these AI assistants aim to directly answer the user's query in a conversational way. Google currently handles over 90 billion searches per month globally and has long dominated the search market. However, the rise of AI chatbots from OpenAI, Microsoft, Google itself and others represents a potential paradigm shift in how people seek information online. For this market to resolve "Yes", a single AI chatbot or virtual assistant must exceed Google's monthly search volume by the end of 2030, as measured by a reliable third-party source. The chatbot must be primarily focused on question-answering and information lookup (not just casual conversation). If no single AI surpasses Google, or if Google remains #1 in total searches, this market resolves "No". Suggested end date: January 1, 2031
This allows the market to run until the end of the forecast period (2030) and gives a little time buffer for search/usage statistics for December 2030 to be published in order to determine the resolution.