China currently has a second strike nuclear posture, meaning it is not prepared to launch on warning of incoming missiles. Instead it has most of its nuclear warheads in storage, with a focus on survivability for a second strike.

This market will resolve YES if at any point before 2027 China adopts a ‘launch on warning’ doctrine.

For clarity, the ability to shift to a launch-on-warning posture during heightened tensions will not count unless such a shift actually occurs.

The following may help in forming a view:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/04/world/asia/china-nuclear-missiles.html

https://blog.ucsusa.org/gregory-kulacki/some-things-you-need-to-know-about-that-new-york-times-article-on-chinese-nuclear-ambition/

https://blog.ucsusa.org/gregory-kulacki/xi-jinpings-thoughts-on-chinas-nuclear-weapons/

https://www.icsin.org/publications/launch-on-warning-and-chinas-nuclear-posture

https://thediplomat.com/2015/05/strategic-warning-and-chinas-nuclear-posture/