If Trump wins, what will the US unemployment rate be at the end of 2026?
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If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.
If Trump does win, resolves to the unemployment rate at the end of 2026, times 10. For example, an unemployment rate of 3.9% would result in a "39%" resolution on this question, and so on. An unemployment rate of 10% or higher results in a "Yes" resolution on this question.
I will use BLS's seasonally-adjusted civilian unemployment rate, as here: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm#
I'll use the last published datapoint for 2026. (I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.)
I will not trade in this market.
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