What will be the next elementary particle discovered?
What will be the next elementary particle discovered?
Mini
9
Ṁ3022051
1D
1W
1M
ALL
24%
15%
New type of neutrino
11%
Axion
8%
X or Y boson
8%
W' or Z' boson
7%
WIMP
7%
Supersymmetric particle
5%
New quark flavor
5%
New charged lepton flavor
4%
Preon
3%
Graviton
3%
Magnetic monopole
What will be the next elementary particle discovered? To count as a discovery, it must be accepted to exist by the physics community.
Note: For this market, I am defining a WIMP as any fermion with mass that interacts via the weak force but not the strong or electromagnetic forces, isn't a neutrino, and isn't the superpartner of some already known particle.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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